Brighton and Hove needs to build more than 37,400 new homes in 15 years to meet the needs of the its 2040 population, research by socio-economic experts at Marrons has revealed.
Following the government’s adoption in December 2024 of a new standard method for determining minimum housing need, the overall annual target for Brighton & Hove City Council has risen to 2,498 homes per annum – an 8% increase[i].
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Brighton and Hove faces a significant challenge in meeting its housing needs due to its geographically constrained administrative boundaries; the city simply doesn’t have the space to meet the full demand within its own confines.
“This means surrounding authorities in the wider housing market area will need to collaborate to help address the shortfall, which has been a long-standing issue.
“The recent devolution announcement, which includes the creation of a Brighton and Sussex area, could play a crucial role in addressing the housing needs. By adopting greater cooperation between local authorities, we can better tackle the unmet housing demands that have long been a barrier to delivering sufficient homes.
“Without this cross-boundary collaboration, the challenge will continue to grow as the region’s population expands.”
Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing needs in 2040.
Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s newly-adopted standard method.
Overall, the South East’s population is expected to grow by 7% to almost 8.2 million.
Brighton and Hove is expected to see the largest uptick in its first-time buyer demographic (17%), while Slough is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 49% by 2040.
Southampton’s social housing stock is estimated to have plummeted by an additional 3,500 by 2040 and the city is also forecasted to see the greatest surge in its student-age population.
Dan added: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next 15 years, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.
“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.
“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”